The Following is Bulletin 12 From The Meteorological Service Jamaica - 20241105:
The centre of Tropical Storm Rafael has begun to move away from the western coast of Jamaica while the system gets better organized; meanwhile, the TROPICAL STORM WARNING remains in effect for the island. This means that tropical storm conditions, including strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall are still expected today.
At 7:00 a.m. the centre of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 17.4
degrees North, longitude 78.4 degrees West. This is about 130 kilometres (80 miles) south-southwest of Montego Bay, and 180 kilometres (110 miles) south of Negril Point, Jamaica.
Rafael continues to move toward the northwest near 20 km/h (13 mph) and a generally northwestward motion is anticipated over the next few days. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to begin moving away from Jamaica this morning, be near the Cayman Islands tonight, and be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 95 km/h (60 mph) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is forecast over the next 24 to 36 hours, making Rafael a hurricane near the Cayman Islands, with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 165 kilometres (105 miles) from the centre.
Rainfall amounts of over 75 millimetres (3 inches), are being reported across Jamaica, primarily in sections of southern parishes, resulting in a few flooding events. Based on the current forecast track, these are expected to increase during the morning. Expect periods of heavy rainfall, measuring 75-150 mm (3-6 inches), to continue to spread across Jamaica today, producing flash flooding in flood-prone areas island-wide. Higher amounts are likely in higher elevations and landslides should also be anticipated in vulnerable sections of the island. Strong, gusty winds are also expected to continue, mainly in thunderstorms and squalls, as Rafael gradually moves away.
Small craft operators are reminded to remain in safe harbour until all warning messages have been lifted and wind and sea conditions have returned to normal. The Meteorological Service continues to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Rafael, and all interests are encouraged to pay special attention to further Releases.
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