Bulletin 13 From The Meteorological Service

Press Release From The Meteorological Office - 20241105:

today, while a Flash Flood Warning is now in effect for southern parishes and a Flash Flood Watch for the rest of the country until 5:00 p.m. The centre of Tropical Storm Rafael continues to move away from the western coast of Jamaica; however, as the system gets better organized, rainbands north and east of the centre are expected to continue to impact conditions across the island today.

At 10:00 a.m. the centre of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 17.8 degrees North, longitude 78.6 degrees West. This is about 105 kilometres (65 miles) southwest of Montego Bay, and 65 kilometres (40 miles) west-southwest of Negril Point, Jamaica.

Rafael continues to move toward the northwest near 20 km/h (13 mph) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the storm is forecast to continue moving away from Jamaica today, be near the Cayman Islands this evening and tonight, and be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 95 km/h (60 mph) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast over the next 24 to 36 hours, and Rafael is expected to become a hurricane near the Cayman Islands, strengthening further before it makes landfall in Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 165 kilometres (105 miles) from the centre.

Rainfall amounts of over 75 millimetres (3 inches), are being reported over sections of some southern parishes, resulting in flooding events. Based on the current projected track and the forecast for more rain, these are expected to increase during the morning.  Expect periods of heavy rainfall, measuring 75-150 mm (3-6 inches), to continue over Jamaica today, producing flash flooding in flood-prone areas island-wide.

Higher amounts are likely in higher elevations and landslides should also be anticipated in vulnerable sections of the island. Strong, gusty winds are also expected to continue in thunderstorms and squalls, associated with Rafael’s spiral bands. 

Small craft operators are reminded to remain in safe harbour until all warning messages are effectively lifted and wind and sea conditions have returned to normal.  The Meteorological Service continues to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Rafael, and all interests are encouraged to pay special attention to further Releases.

The next Bulletin, which is likely to be the final one on this system, will be issued at 2:00 p.m. today.