The latest information that I have is that Invest 98L is now a hurricane called Melissa, and it's in the Caribbean. Melissa is now packing winds of 85 km/h. There are areas without water, and therefore, people cannot access water to store it at this time.
Information From The National Hurricane Centre
Melissa is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of significant flash flooding and the danger of landslides to portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic through the weekend.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southern coast and Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by Thursday.
There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Melissa. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
Satellite images, regional Caribbean radar data, and surface observations indicate that invest 98L has developed a well-defined center and organized deep convection to be designated a tropical cyclone. A ship report that recently passed near the center of the system reported a minimum pressure of about 1003 mb. Satellite imagery shows the system is asymmetric, with the low-level center near the western edge of the central dense overcast. The initial intensity is set at 50 mph (45 knots), based on a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates, marking the formation of Tropical Storm Melissa. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon (21 October), and their data should provide a better assessment of Melissa's strength and structure.
The system was moving very quickly westward over the past several days, but it has slowed down significantly this morning, which has likely helped Melissa form. The initial motion is estimated to be 280/12 knots. Melissa should continue to slow down and gradually turn to the northwest and then north during the next couple of days toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This motion will likely take the storm very near the southwestern tip of Haiti and Jamaica by Thursday. After that time, the guidance diverges significantly with some models like the GFS and HWRF showing a motion to the northeast into the weakness, while the other solutions show a stall or a westward drift on the south side of a building ridge. An examination of the GFS, ECMWF, and Google DeepMind ensemble suites suggest that the majority of the members show Melissa not moving into the weakness and remaining in the Caribbean Sea throughout the week and into the weekend. The NHC official track forecast lies between the Google DeepMind ensemble mean track and the correct consensus aid, HCCA.
Melissa is expected to be over the very warm waters of the Caribbean, but the models suggest that vertical wind shear will be moderate with some dry air in the vicinity of the storm during the next few days. Based on these mixed signals, the strengthening trend is expected to be slow and steady, not rapid. However, the future intensity of Melissa is linked to the track and since that is quite uncertain beyond a couple of days, the strength of the storm is also quite uncertain. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA model.
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Release From the Meteorological Service, Jamaica - Issued October 21, 2025, 10:45 a.m.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA
KINGSTON JAMAICA The Office of Disaster Preparedness &
Emergency Management (ODPEM) is advising the public that the Meteorological
Service of Jamaica (MSJ) has reported a potential tropical cyclone to form in
the central Caribbean later today that could pose a possible threat to Jamaica
within 48 hours.
This system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and
strong gusty winds with the potential of
reaching
tropical storm force predominantly over northeastern and southern parishes
starting
Wednesday
October 22, through to the weekend.
Fishers on
the cays and banks are advised to evacuate immediately and start returning to
the mainland. Other small craft operators in our coastal waters are advised to
return to port. Small craft
operators
who are in port are advised not to risk
going out.
The ODPEM is advising
the public who resides in the low-lying and flood prone areas to take the
following precautions:
➢ Be
ready to evacuate if you live in low-lying or flood- prone areas. Decide early
on evacuation routes.
➢ Avoid
flooded waterways i.e. fords, gullies, streams or rivers, either on foot or in
vehicle.
➢ Ensure
that all important documents are secured in plastic bags or waterproof
containers.
➢ Turn
off electrical power, gas & water supplies in areas that are in immediate
danger of flooding.
➢ Avoid
areas with damaged roadways.
➢ Avoid
areas prone to landslide & flooding.
The public is being
asked to monitor the media, MSJ & relevant authorities for further advisories. The ODPEM will
continue to monitor the system and provide the public with information as
necessary.
. ________________________
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