Press Release from the Meteorological Office - August 27. 2027
At 4:00 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 40.7 West. Dolly is moving toward the west near 39 km/h, and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, this system should be nearing the Leeward Islands this weekend.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 km/h with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely during the next 48 hours, and Dolly is forecast to degenerate into a tropical wave before it reaches the Leeward Islands.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 95 km from the centre.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 29.74 inches.
Tropical Storm Dolly is not a threat to Jamaica.
The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor this system.
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The National Hurricane Centre
Heavy rains from Dolly or its remnants could affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday with possible impacts in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain of the Leeward Islands.
Dolly appears to be more or less maintaining its intensity at this time. However, the associated deep convection is not very well-organized, with no well-defined banding features evident on satellite images. The center of circulation is estimated to be on the north side of the main area of convection. The Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB remains at 40 mph (35 knots). There was a Metop-B scatterometer pass from just before 00:00 UTC which showed just a couple of 35-knot vectors. Therefore the advisory intensity is kept at 40 mph (35 knots). The scatterometer pass did not completely capture the circulation of the storm but it did suggest some north-northeastward to south-southwestward elongation of the center.
The storm continues to move quickly toward the west and the initial motion estimate is 280/20 knots, about the same as before. Dolly is forecast to move mainly westward at a fast forward speed for the next couple of days on the south side of a strong high pressure ridge over the central Atlantic. There have been no significant changes in the track guidance from earlier today (27 August). There is fairly good agreement amongst the various model tracks, and the official track forecast is roughly in the middle of these tracks. This is close to the latest Google DeepMind solution.
Although it will encounter warmer ocean waters, Dolly is likely to move into less favorable atmospheric conditions during the next couple of days. Some slight short-term strengthening is possible, but increasing vertical wind shear, relatively dry air and the fast forward motion of the system should begin to adversely affect Dolly fairly soon. The global models show the system degenerating into a tropical wave while it approaches the Lesser Antilles, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to the model consensus. Post-tropical positions are provided at 48–60 hours given the risk of gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
Tomorrow will be another hot day with temperatures hitting 35°C mark. We hope there will be some thunderstorms early in the morning.
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