Meteorological Service - Bulletin 4 , Tropical Storm Watch

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Jamaica as Potential Tropical Cyclone Number 15 moves westward over the central Caribbean Sea and offshore the island’s south coast.  This means that tropical storm conditions pose a possible threat to Jamaica within 48 hours. 

At 4:00 a.m. the disturbance was centred near latitude 15.8 degrees North, longitude 76.1 degrees West, or about 230 kilometres (125 miles) south of Morant Point, Jamaica. 

The system is moving towards the west near 19 km/h (12 mph) and a westward to westnorthwestward motion is expected over the next few days.  On the forecast track, the centre will pass south of Jamaica today and south of the Cayman Islands tomorrow. 

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 km/h (40 mph), with higher gusts, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm later today.  Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days and the system could be near hurricane intensity by Wednesday.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 kilometres (115 miles) from the centre. 

Fishers on the cays and banks are reminded to exercise extreme caution at this time due to the dangerous sea conditions.  Winds are expected to reach tropical storm force today while the disturbance moves across offshore waters south of the mainland. 

The system has the potential to produce 50-100 millimetres (2-4 inches) of rainfall and strong, gusty winds reaching near tropical storm force, starting over eastern and southern parishes later this morning.  Residents should be on the alert for possible flash flooding in flood-prone areas. 

The Meteorological Service continues to monitor the progress of this system, and all interests are encouraged to pay special attention to further Releases.  The next Bulletin on this system will be issued at 8:00 a.m. today.