The Meteorological Service Branch of the Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation is predicting that, for the tenth consecutive year running, the Atlantic Hurricane Season will experience above-normal activity. This represents a full endorsement of the forecast presented by the Climate Prediction Center of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) acting as the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of the World Meteorological Organization, in its Seasonal Outlook.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1 and, as is customary, will end on November 30. According to NOAA, this year there is a 60% chance that the activity of the season will be higher than normal, while near-normal activity is about 30% likely and there is only a 10% likelihood that it will be below-normal.
For 2025, the Outlook is for:
13-19 Named Storms, 6-10 Hurricanes, and 3-5 Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5). (see figure. 1)
Apart from the fact that the trend of above-normal seasons seems to be continuing since it started in the mid-1990s, the season’s activity is expected to be above normal due to a confluence of factors. This includes continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average sea-surface temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. All of these elements tend to favour tropical storm formation. The higher-heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption.
OUTLOOK FOR THE 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
Figure 1: Predictions for 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season
Additionally, while the warm waters of the Atlantic fuel hurricanes, the presence of Saharan dust (Saharan Air Layer) can act as a natural inhibitor, suppressing tropical storm development. A thick dust plume in the early hurricane season (June-July) can significantly suppress activity. However, later in the season (August-September), as sea-surface temperatures peak, tropical storms may become strong enough to overcome the dust’s dampening effects.
Furthermore, the arrival of the Saharan dust layer is not unusual across the Caribbean because this weather phenomenon happens every year between late April and October. The plumes are usually short-lived, lasting no more from 5 to 7 days. A number of plumes have moved across the central and western Caribbean, and there is a current plume in the vicinity of Jamaica. This is not of a similar magnitude to that which moved over the Eastern Caribbean a few days ago. The forecast is for hazy Conditions to affect sections of most parishes, with warmer temperatures, and a reduction in rainfall potential.
Interpreting the Forecast
This Outlook indicates, by way of probabilities, the likelihood of an above-normal, nearnormal or below-normal season. A ‘normal’ season produces, on average, 14 named storms, seven of which become hurricanes and three of which become hurricanes of category 3 or higher (major hurricanes).
The Outlook is produced from climate models that directly predict seasonal hurricane activity and from the predictions of how large-scale climate factors, such as El Niño/La Niña are expected to influence seasonal hurricane activity. Since no climate model or prediction of climate factors is 100% accurate, the purpose of the Outlook is to provide a general guide to the expected overall activity during the upcoming hurricane season. The Outlook does not provide a prediction of the number of storms expected to make landfall over Jamaica nor any impact for any particular location on the island.
Being Prepared
Whether the seasonal prediction is for above-normal or below-normal activity, a disaster can occur from only one hurricane or tropical storm, or even from a lesser developing system passing over or near the island. Residents are, therefore, advised to prepare for each hurricane season regardless of the seasonal forecast. Fishers and other marine operators, are usually the first to be impacted by emerging weather systems at sea so they are especially urged to be alert during this time of the year.
During the month of June, being recognized as Disaster Preparedness Month, the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) will provide important hurricane preparedness information through their offices and the mass media.
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