Will Melissa pay us a visit in Jamaica? If she does, it could be with the fury of a Gilbert, except we might just experience the outer bands on the south coast. A pounding of the food basket parish, or turning Negril, the tourist hotspot, upside down, could be devastating for us at this time.
We must be positive and be our brother's keeper. Help and protect one another, especially at this time. You can never tell; Melissa might decide that she does not like Jamaicans and stay far to the south of us. Let's pray that this too shall pass.
Information From The NHC
Jamaica: Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides, and storm surge continues to increase for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in Jamaica by Saturday.
Haiti: Heavy rainfall will result in catastrophic flash flooding and landslides across southwestern Haiti by this weekend into early next week. Extensive damage to roads and buildings is expected, potentially isolating communities for an extended period of time. This is a life-threatening situation and immediate preparations to protect life and property should be taken. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti.
Remainder of Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall could also produce significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern Dominican Republic. Interests in Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa since the risk of heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and storm surge appears to be increasing.
Melissa has gotten a little better organized this evening, with the low-level center re-forming a little to the north close to a burst of deep convection. However, tail Doppler radar data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggests the storm is still not vertically aligned, and the circulation at 700 and 500 mb is still poorly defined. The central pressure remains near 1001 mb, so the initial intensity will be held at 45 mph (40 knots). However, the aircraft wind data suggest this could be a little generous.
Melissa is still feeling the effects of about 15 mph (15 knots) of westerly shear, and between this and the disorganized structure only slow strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours. After that time, a combination of more favorable upper-level winds and very warm sea surface temperatures should allow considerable strengthening once the cyclone gets better organized. The intensity guidance remains in good agreement on the possibility of rapid intensification as the center nears Jamaica, and the new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast. In addition, the tropical cyclone is expected to grow significantly in size, and it will likely be a large and dangerous hurricane towards the end of the forecast period.
Forecaster Beven. Advisory Number 11. Information provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
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