Report from the National Hurricane Centre
Heavy rains from the remnants of Dolly could affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday with possible impacts in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy rain may produce flash flooding within areas of higher terrain of the Leeward Islands.
During the past few hours, the center of Dolly passed just north of NOAA buoy 41041, which did not observe any westerly winds. Examination of high-resolution satellite imagery also does not readily indicate any westerly winds south of the center. Based on this, Dolly has become an open tropical wave, with the initial and forecast positions being that of the vorticity maximum. The initial intensity remains 40 mph (35 knots), with those winds occurring north of the vorticity center.
The system is moving 280/22 knots, and this motion should continue for the next 24 hours. After that time, a general westward to west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed should take the remnants of Dolly near the Leeward Island Saturday night or Sunday, and near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Sunday afternoon or Sunday night. A continued west-northwestward motion is expected after that, with the remnants moving through the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas during the early part of next week.
The system is currently in a hostile environment with significant southwesterly shear and dry air. These conditions should continue for at least the next 2–3 days, and the remnants should slowly weaken during this time. The official forecast shows 24 hours of points where the maximum winds are at tropical-storm force and there is a well-defined vorticity center. After that, the winds are expected to decrease below 40 mph (35 knots), and the system center is expected to become less well-defined. Some global models hint at the possibility that Dolly could regenerate in several days, but at this time there is poor agreement on where and when this might occur. Should conditions warrant, further information regarding the potential redevelopment of the remnants of Dolly will be provided in subsequent Tropical Weather Outlooks.
General
Today, it's partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 92F. Winds SE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
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