Hurricane Isaias
Dropsonde data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicates that Isaias has become a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure measured from another dropsonde launched in the eye was 982 mb (29.00 inches).
Isaias is expected to strengthen and be a strong hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along a portion of the northern Gulf Coast, and a Storm Surge Warning is now in effect from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Steinhatchee, Florida. Residents in the warning area should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so.
Damaging hurricane force-winds are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi, and a Hurricane Warning is now in effect from Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Bay/Gulf County Line, Florida. Residents in these areas should prepare for the possibility of long-duration power outages.
Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast Friday into the weekend. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible.
Isaias could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portion of the Yucatán Peninsula through Thursday.
Aircraft data and satellite trends indicate Isaias has continued intensifying this evening. The center of the tropical cyclone is embedded underneath a small central dense overcast with very cold tops associated with deep convection. Upper-level outflow is observed in all quadrants, though it remains somewhat restricted to the southwest due to moderate vertical wind shear. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicates the central pressure has fallen to 988 mb, and on the last fix they reported a circular eyewall open to the southwest. Based on these developments, the initial intensity is raised to 70 mph (60 knots).
Aircraft fixes indicate the center is still moving toward the east-northeast (070/8 knots). The system is expected to accelerate northeastward tomorrow and then northward on Friday within the flow between a deepening trough over the south-central United States and a strengthening subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. This steering pattern is forecast to bring the center of Isaias to the northern Gulf Coast late Friday night into early Saturday. There were no major changes to the guidance suite, with the AI-based models generally faster and farther right than the physics-based models. The NHC forecast continues to lean more heavily on the better-performing corrected consensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind (GDMI) aids, remaining on the faster and right side of the guidance envelope. The inland track at 60–72 hours was shifted westward as more models now show Isaias becoming captured by the cut-off low over the southeastern United States.
Continued strengthening is expected during the next day or so as Isaias moves over very warm waters in a moist environment with moderate vertical wind shear. Given its small size and formative inner core, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility, and the NHC forecast lies on the high end of the intensity guidance. The shear is predicted to markedly increase on Friday while Isaias approaches the northern Gulf Coast, but the system is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall. Gusty winds are expected well inland after landfall given the anticipated expansion of the wind field and fast forward speed of the storm.
Hurricane, Storm Surge, and Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued with this advisory for portions of the northern Gulf Coast.
Hurricane Simone
Simon is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Thursday night and approach the west-central coast of Mexico as a major hurricane on Saturday. There is a risk of dangerous wind and storm surge impacts along portions of this coast over the weekend and into early next week, and watches could be required overnight into early Thursday.
Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of southwestern Mexico later this week and into the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Simon has continued to become better organized on satellite imagery over the past 6 hours with a large area of deep convection and improved curved banding. A recent WSF-M microwave pass also shows improved curved banding structure. The latest subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB was 3.0/45 knots, and the initial intensity has been raised to 50 mph (45 knots) accordingly, and this could be conservative.
Environmental conditions are quite favorable for significant intensification. The SHIPS Rapid Intensity Index indicates greater than a 50% chance of 65 mph (55 knots) of strengthening over the next 48 hours. Most of the hurricane regional models, as well as HCCA and GDMI show significant intensification over the next couple of days, and the NHC intensity forecast has been increased accordingly. The NHC forecast now indicates a 125 mph (110 knots) intensity at 60 and 72 hours, and this is at the high end of the model suite, in good agreement with the HCCA model.
The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 290 degrees at 10 mph (8 knots). Simon is likely to continue this general west-northwestward motion for the next day or so, to the south of a weak mid-level ridge. By Friday, the system should turn northwestward and then northward ahead of a 500 mb trough approaching Baja California. In 3–5 days, the cyclone should move generally northward between a mid-level anticyclone and the trough near Baja California. The official forecast track has been shifted a bit to the left from 12–60 hours, but is nearly on top of the previous track from days 3 to 5, and is quite similar to the latest HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA). The forecast takes Simon toward the coast of west-central Mexico as a dangerous major hurricane in a few days. There is a fair amount of spread in the guidance, and that is important to note because Simon is forecast to be moving nearly parallel to the coastline in about 72 hours when it nears west-central Mexico. A track farther west would keep Simon over water longer, but a track farther east would mean a sooner landfall.
Report from the National Hurricane Centre
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Missa D.all.me need to.know is whether or no to batten.up.or.leave the country.
ReplyDeleteOne question those hurricanes Gwinn affect me.in St Thomas or Westmotreland.and when.
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Summarize,Summarize in the future with Jamaica relevance not Mexico.
This is an International blog and therefore it will feature the weather anywhere. It is a thorough report written by professionals. You have to read and pick out what is important to you.
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